Everyone who fears the rise of Reform UK will hope this is the moment its bubble bursts. Labour and the Conservatives have watched in horror in the months since the election as Nigel Farage’s party has climbed to the top of the polls. The traditional parties of power desperately want Reform to implode – and now it is enmeshed in in-fighting following the suspension of Rupert Lowe as a Reform MP. Here are five reasons why this is a time of high danger for a party that wants to transform British politics for good.

First, the public are fed up with a parties in a state of civil war.

Traditional Tory voters backed Reform at the last election after watching the Conservatives tear themselves apart. The electorate was also unimpressed by the naked division on display in Labour during the Jeremy Corbyn era.

Reform is selling itself as a party which can win the next election. But Britons will not vote for chaos.

Likewise, donors are not going to invest in a scandal-prone party ridden with factions and plotters.

Second, Farage needs to look like a prime minister-in-waiting.

Nigel Farage’s campaigning skills are legendary. But what happens the day after a successful election?

A PM has to be able to lead a disciplined cabinet. There were legendary bust-ups in Ukip and walk-outs from the Brexit Party and now Reform is hit with strife.

Mr Farage must show he can assemble a talented team and keep it together.

Third, Sir Keir Starmer is recovering – and the Tories are fighting harder.

Sir Keir has seen a 10-point boost in his overall approval rating in a fortnight, according to figures released by Opinium on Saturday. His leading role in the Ukraine crisis has switched attention away from domestic woes and presented the Labour leader as an international statesman.

New YouGov polling puts Labour in first place (24%), ahead of Reform on 23% and the Conservatives on 22%. The Tories have unveiled a succession of policies to get tougher on immigration and will present themselves as the only credible challenger to Labour.

Every slip in the polls and drop in membership which Reform suffers will be pointed to as proof its popularity has peaked.

Fourth, Reform mustn’t look like a party of the Loony Right.

To win a general election, Reform must do more than siphon votes from traditional Tories who think the modern Conservative party has gone soft. In the summer election it finished second in 98 constituencies – and in 89 of these Labour came first.

Reform must convince voters they will be better off under a Farage-led Government and that it has costed and credible policies to improve their lives. Reform’s foes will try and portray the party as unsavoury Right-wing obsessives who are enamoured with President Trump, weak on Ukraine and out of touch with voters worried about the cost of living.

Fifth, the party needs to be match fit for the local elections.

The Lowe debacle comes just when the party should be focusing its full energy on campaigns to take control of councils and mayoralties across England. Kemi Badenoch has warned the local elections will be “extremely difficult” for the Tories – can Reform translate its success in opinion polls into results at the ballot box?

Winning big will help Reform put down roots in communities across the nation. But if it fizzles on election day Reform will be seen as a party heavy in hype but low in votes.

The party still has a rich opportunity to make history but this is a terrible time for a meltdown.